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My 2016 Obama predictions

So, I find the frothing predictions of John Wright and others to be hilariously ludicrous, but I'll give Wright credit for making predictions concrete enough that we can say they *are* wrong (and doing so *again*), rather than vague premonitions of DOOM and the death of America or democracy or both. So let me, as I did not in 2008, risk some predictions of my own, for the day of the 2016 elections.

* The unemployment metric currently at 7.8% will be below 6%.
* Core inflation below 4%. CPI might be higher, due to food and energy prices, which the government can't do anything about. If there's not enough food and oil to go around, then there's not enough food and oil.
* A deficit/GDP ratio lower than today's. (Deficit, not debt.)
* The top marginal rate for federal income tax will be no higher than 40%. If I'm wrong, it'll still be no higher than 45%. Exception: if by some miracle we dump Obamacare for Medicare For All, taxes will go up for that.
* Polls will show Americans to be happy with Obamacare and to not think that the health care system has disintegrated.
* Non-emergency waiting times will be less than 50% longer.

* No non-testing nuclear bombs will have exploded in the world.
* Fewer than 1000 deaths due to terrorism on US soil between now and then.
* No significant loss of federal level gun rights, just as there haven't been in the last 4 years.
* No foreign troops will have attacked Israel, which will continue to get billions of dollars in US aid.

Feel free to bookmark!

See the comment count unavailable DW comments at http://mindstalk.dreamwidth.org/340298.html#comments

Comments

( 2 comments — Leave a comment )
fpb
Nov. 9th, 2012 08:25 pm (UTC)
Just because Wright does it does not mean you have to do it. You're going to regret this.
mindstalk
Nov. 10th, 2012 06:28 am (UTC)
We'll see!
But I think my odds are good. Wright predicted ludicrous levels of disaster, for no well-grounded reason; I basically predict business as usual. The only risky prediction is the unemployment rate, which optimistically assumes a faster recovery than we've had so far.
( 2 comments — Leave a comment )

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